The International Air Transport Association (IATA) reported a slight decline in global passenger demand for May 2026, with total revenue passenger kilometers (RPKs) down 2.2% compared to May 2025.
However, excluding the Middle East, demand increased by
0.7%.
Total capacity, measured in available seat kilometers (ASK),
fell by 2.3% year-on-year, while the global load factor rose slightly to 83.5%,
a record high for the month of May.
International demand decreased by 1.6% year-on-year, though
excluding the Middle East it grew by 3.1%.
Capacity on international routes declined by 2.4%, and the
load factor improved to 83.7%, up 0.7 percentage points from May 2025.
Domestic air travel also weakened, contracting by 3.1%
compared to the same period last year.
Capacity fell by 2.1%, and the domestic load factor declined
to 83.0%, down 0.8 percentage points year-on-year.
“Air passenger demand was down 2.2% year-on-year in May on
the impact of war in the Middle East. The decline was centered on carriers in
the Middle East with a 28.4% year-on-year fall. That’s a significant
improvement on the 46.6% decline recorded for April, a sign of the region’s
resilience. Notably, we also saw year-on-year contractions in demand in both
North America and Asia, largely related to domestic market conditions in the US
and China.
Overall, May demand still appeared to be largely resilient
in the face of high fuel prices and air fares. While the recent sharp drop in
oil prices is an encouraging development, the challenges created by the war
will likely persist for some time. Oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz
remains uncertain and it is likely to take time before the benefit of lower oil
prices is reflected in ‘normalized’ jet fuel pricing. In the meantime, airlines
who are operating on a 2.0% margin will have little choice but to continue
testing demand resilience with higher fares that attempt to cover elevated fuel
costs,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.
Regional Breakdown - International Passenger Markets
International RPK fell 1.6%, with capacity falling 2.4%. The
pace of decline reduced compared to April and many regions hit record load
factors for May, with only the Middle East posting a load factor decline.
Middle Eastern carriers saw a 28.8% year-on-year
decrease in demand. Capacity fell 24.3% year-on-year, and the load factor was
76.1% (-4.8 ppt compared to May 2025). The impacts of the Iran war continue to
cause a highly negative year-on-year traffic comparison, but month-to-month the
impact is lessening and the rate of decline was almost half that of April.
Asia-Pacific airlines achieved a 1.3% year-on-year
increase in demand. Capacity decreased 1.1% year-on-year, and the load
factor was 85.3% (+2.0 ppt compared to May 2025). In Vietnam, tighter limits on
jet fuel imports led to significant capacity cuts on short haul routes,
resulting in a decline in intra-Asia international traffic during the month.
European carriers saw a 3.8% year-on-year increase in
demand. Capacity increased 2.3% year-on-year, and the load factor was 85.4%
(+1.2 ppt compared to May 2025). Of note is the 15% increase in direct traffic
to Asia, reflecting a continued shift to direct services between the two
regions.
North American carriers increased demand 1.0%
year-on-year. Capacity increased 0.6% year-on-year, and the load factor was
84.0% (+0.4 ppt compared to May 2025).
Latin American airlines achieved a 10.5% year-on-year
increase in demand. Capacity climbed 9.0% year-on-year. The load factor was
85.0% (+1.2% ppt compared to May 2025).
African airlines saw an 8.9% year-on-year increase in
demand. Capacity was up 8.3% year-on-year. The load factor was 73.4% (+0.4 ppt
compared to May 2025).
Domestic Passenger Markets
Domestic RPK fell (-3.1%) in May 2026 compared to the same
month last year, with the largest fall in China, which may be linked to higher
fares and/or the Dragon Boat Festival occurring in June this year.
The US also had a notable decline while most other markets
achieved moderate growth. -TradeArabia News Service